Posted by: sarahmeyers | August 18, 2007

Web 2.0 Uh Oh!

Web 2.0 OH OH!
Today, I heard Muckmund Moham talk about investment, dead pool and traffic as the things to watch for in a web 2.0 bust. Here are the notes I took on what we all talked about at the Bar Camp Block!

A. You know web 2.0 is a burst if the wave of traffic goes through a high wave and does not catch it. Only then is 2.0 is dead. If a company gets a large audience it must allow for that audience to adapt and it must retain the audience to become a strong company.

B. If the traffic wave looks like a first high volume wave and then levels off there is still opportunity for it to hit a second wave and then may level off a little. However, it still maintains a good potential of growth in easy steps; just like 1,2,3.

Where are we in the phase of Web 2.0?

1. Investment cycle: should they be investing? It’s looking bad with investments that are so large that the others have to invest in a large way with the others to compete. This is because when the others are getting large investments you have to compete with them in a large way.

2. Technologies:
-There are early stages in tools like developing tools– example– like Facebook.
-We ask ourselves: do our tools fit in the mainstream? You have find a way to do what you want besides the early adopters. This does not always have to apply to waiting for the adoption and not relying on advertising as a way to get into the mainstream audience.

3. Adoption:
-This whole web 2.0 craze is driven over content. If the content level dissipates then there will be a bust. Capital cost are low by the amount of people. In 1.0 it was the case about not having to hire a lot of people to work for you company.
-Good example of a web 2.0 company that has great adoption is You Tube because it proves the adoption that will pay off immediately.

This all has to do with content in the bust because content is what makes it boom or bust.

Every company is competing for share of attention. How much time do you get from the people over the time of day? How do advertisers see this? It may be just as hard to build the business.

Chris Heuer says that the growth of web 2.0 in other countries is based on sex, like population booming countries for example, have a hard time affording the technologies because of the growth rate. “In the US right now we don’t have this problem, but we will soon.”
What are the indicators of a bust?
1. Jobs
2. Content growth
3. Class enrolment in school for Computer Science
4. PR funding
5. Salaries
6. Macro economic Economic indicators

So what are we doing now? We are killing newspapers. If you believe this enough then you have to ask yourself if we have
Jeremiah Owang says inv2009 we will see the advertising shift to the web.


Responses

  1. I think we may see a return to more rational investing. For almost every web 2.0 idea there are 20 companies building or attempting to build a website based upon it, and many of these ideas have little intellectual value.

    As for the attention economy, when will we get metrics to tell us how much attention visitors are paying and how much that attention is worth?

  2. […] Web 2 dot oh (or uh oh), we were discussing the economic state of Web 2.0 and leading indicators. Sarah wrote about the session, and showed I did not o well at making my point there at all – you try explaining the economics of […]


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